ROCKFORD,
Ill. - It will be a mixed bag for the manufacturing community as the 2011
economy will not lead to “champagne cork-popping, but be more like wine box
opening time,” forecasted Chris Kuehl, Ph.D., economic analyst for the
Fabricators & Manufacturers Association, International
(FMA).
“For manufacturers, much will depend on what sector they serve. For example,
housing and commercial construction will remain weak, and many states are in a
severe budget crisis. This does not bode well for those who sell to industries
supported by construction. However, the fact that oil prices are rising and
that economic growth is solid in the states that are engaged in the energy
field make for good news to manufacturers that sell to the energy community,”
stated Kuehl.
Kuehl offered these 10 predictions for 2011 that will impact both manufacturing
and other sectors:
1.The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates where they
are for most, if not all, of 2011. That means other rates will not likely rise
much either.
2.The Fed will keep rates low because there will be little
or no inflation to speak of - at least from the core rate perspective (real
rates of inflation may be another story).
3.The unemployment rate will remain high - between 9 and
10.3 percent. It may actually worsen early in the year before getting a tiny
bit better later.
4.Export levels will continue to increase as the dollar
will remain weak. The dollar may gain a little against the euro simply due to
the crisis in the eurozone.
5.The price of most industrial commodities, such as steel,
copper, aluminum, nickel, and zinc, will rise, but only according to supply and
demand. Unless there is some burst in economic growth, there will be nothing
sudden.
6.The overall level of consumer sentiment will improve, but
not fast and not consistently - unless and until the jobless rate
improves.
7.Oil prices will rise to around $100 early in 2011 and
will likely live in a range between $90 and $115.
8.The gap between the various states regarding their budget
deficits will widen considerably, with those in the industrial Midwest taking
the biggest hit (along with California). The states in the Southeast,
Southwest, Rocky Mountain Region, and the Great Plains will benefit the
most.
9.The housing market will finally stabilize, yet at low
levels, and there will be very limited growth in residential and commercial
building.
10.The U.S. economy as a whole will start to grow at
between 2.6 percent and 3.2 percent - not great but well out of recession
territory - and there will be no double dip in 2011.
“There are some parts of this forecast that will have an impact on the rest of
it, and growth is at the top of that list,” Kuehl said. “The assumption that
interest and inflation rates will stay low means that there is moderate and
controlled growth. This also is a factor as far as the likelihood of a double
dip. If the U.S. economy should suddenly start to surge and grow at a rate of 5
or 6 percent a quarter, the whole system shudders to keep up.
“There instantly will be bottlenecks across the board in many categories as
most companies have been reducing capacity in order to accommodate the
recession,” he explained. “If they have to gear up fast, there will be price
hikes and even labor shortages that will add to the inflation threat. The core
rate may be well under the 2 percent limit the Fed has suggested, but the real
rate has already been moving upward due to the hikes in food and fuel prices
that are not traditionally figured into the core rate.”
Publication date:02/07/2011
