That is the opinion of Associated Builders
and Contractors surveyed for the group’s construction backlog indicator.
Construction activity
remains slow, but there are some positive trends emerging.
Those are the opinions of
Associated Builders and Contractors surveyed for the group’s monthly construction backlog
indicator.
Among
those asked, the construction backlog stood at seven months in June and 7.3
months in July – up 20.4 percent from July 2009, but down 1.2 percent from the
index’s historic high of 7.4 months in April.
The
indicator gauges the amount of construction work contracted to be completed in
coming months.
"Construction backlog is no longer expanding despite
the fact that backlog related to infrastructure continues to increase. This
suggests that the recovery of privately financed activities remains slow,"
said Anirban Basu, the
association’s chief economist. "There are no indications, however, that
overall construction business volume has begun to shrink; merely that backlog
is no longer advancing.
"The U.S. economic recovery is now roughly 12 months
old. Nonresidential construction activities typically lag the overall economy
by 12 to 24 months, with the implication that privately financed activities
should soon begin to show signs of a rebound,” he added.
But how strong any rebound will be is highly uncertain.
"However, there are reasons to believe that this moment in
economic history will be a bit different from other economic recoveries due to
a number of factors, including still rising office vacancy rates in many parts
of the nation, extraordinarily slow job creation, tight credit and fears that
the economic recovery will not persist. Therefore, the future path of the CBI
is a mystery because construction's recovery remains far from guaranteed,"
Basu said.
