Something happened in January of 2022 that is affecting the HVAC industry this year and promises to affect it for several years to come. An undersea volcano erupted in the South Pacific and just about everyone missed the significance it would have on weather.
Normally volcanoes, if they impact the weather at all, tend to have a cooling effect from spewing ash and compounds like sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. These reflect sunlight, resulting in cooler temperatures. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 cooled the planet for a couple of years. That didn’t happen this time.
On Jan. 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano erupted under the South Pacific. It was massive. NASA scientist Jim Garvin said, “We think the amount of energy released by the eruption was equivalent to somewhere between 4-18 megatons of TNT.”
Think of Hiroshima times 100.
The impact was felt globally. A sonic boom circled the world not once but twice. The acoustic wave disturbed the ionosphere, which starts over 50 miles above the earth. The local tsunami delivered swells up to 50 feet high. On the other side of the world, the sea level in the Mediterranean rose by a foot.
Not only was it big, this was a different type of volcanic eruption. First the sulfur dioxide levels were lower than expected and the ash quickly settled to the ground. Accordingly, the initial estimates of the volcano’s impact on the weather were minimized.
While Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai delivered less ash and sulfur dioxide, it sent an unusually large amount of water vapor into the atmosphere. The plume of water vapor extended more than 35 miles above the earth's surface. The amount of water released is estimated to be the equivalent of 58 thousand Olympic sized swimming pools. It increased the water vapor in the upper atmosphere by 10%!
Luis Millán from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory said, “We’ve never seen anything like it.”
Simon Proud from the U.K.’s National Centre for Earth Observation concurred, stating, “We've never seen anything get up anywhere near this high before. It really was quite breathtaking.”
What does this mean for the HVAC industry? Hotter weather. Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas and Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai just goosed it by 10%. In August 2022, NASA’s Jane Lee and Andrew Want predicted, “The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.”
The pair of NASA scientists further noted, “The excess water vapor injected by the Tonga volcano, on the other hand, could remain in the stratosphere for several years.”
Now, combine the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai with an El Niño, which is the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean’s naturally occurring oscillation, and we are looking at hotter than normal summers for the next several years. The hotter weather from the combination of increased water vapor and an El Niño will help offset the impact of the shipment cliff in the replacement market, which has suppressed demand this year.
While the industry will wrestle through new refrigerants and the higher prices that result, the hotter weather of the next few years will stimulate demand despite equipment affordability issues. The next few years will be good ones for the air conditioning industry.
