As 2023 comes to a close, HVAC professionals are beginning to wonder what 2024 will look like for the industry. The ACHR NEWS asked a few industry leaders to make predictions for the upcoming year.

Ken Misiewicz
CEO, Pluene Service Company

Manufacturers need to transition from current air conditioning and heat pump products to their chosen refrigerant(s) of the future. Wholesalers need to manage inventory where they can theoretically sell everything they’ve purchased or committed to while also stocking enough to take care of customer needs. And contractors will need to learn how to apply new product, safely work with new refrigerants, and successfully navigate codes and standards that don’t necessarily align with SNAP.

From where I sit, it looks like manufacturers have made their refrigerant choices and are preparing for the switchover. Since there is no way not to disrupt the market, they have to make their best guess on when to flip the switch and convert their manufacturing lines to new products. Wholesalers that are not running a tight ship are going to get caught short. They need to balance their stock of equipment and incoming orders with the ongoing needs of their customers while also not stocking more than they can sell … which is going to be made more challenging by SNAP’s two-definition regulation allowing certain products to have a sell-through period while others must be installed by a certain date. Understanding and managing decisions based on the difference between what is “equipment” and what is a “system” is more complicated that it needs to be.

Contractors are concerned about getting caught with inventory or orders in process that cannot be legally installed, the transition to A2L refrigerants, and codes.

The decarbonization effort continues to push electrification, which is great for anyone using heat pump technology. At the same time, this means refrigerant changes affect a larger percentage of the population and will be more disruptive than in years past. In Michigan, we are lucky enough to have a single state construction code, so we do not have a patchwork of codes to deal with. However, we are in the process of adopting a modified version of the ICC’s 2021 International Mechanical Code, which does not address A2L refrigerants. Since we are likely three years out from adopting the 2024 code, which does include A2Ls, we have a problem.

While the enforcing Authorities having Jurisdiction (AHJs) can independently accept alternative technologies, most are looking to the state for a code, rule, or statute change that clearly allows them to accept A2Ls. Unless and until that happens, I see significant potential for confusion. Speaking as a contractor, that means we need to stay informed, communicate frequently with our suppliers and customers, and — most importantly — collaborate proactively with our customers to help them navigate an overly complicated decision-making landscape.

Tony Kocurek
Owner, Energy Balance & Integration, and former SMACNA president

In the past year, ;I saw IAQ education as paramount not only for the public, but for our members and the industry at large. As we gear up for 2024, the HVAC industry should continue to increase awareness surrounding IAQ, as it will continue to be an important part of HVAC design and management. There will be a heightened emphasis on IAQ solutions, driven by new research and awareness surrounding IAQ and health concerns. HVAC systems will need to prioritize air purification, humidity control, and ventilation to ensure cleaner and healthier indoor environments.

As IAQ and testing and balancing (TAB) related work grows, more realistic job schedules will need to be developed, especially with any jobs where TAB reporting is required for job completion. TAB can only test what will be running and operational in a final turnover state and will need to be involved from start to finish when creating a job schedule. Furthermore, the field of TAB within HVAC systems is expected to see significant advancements. There will be a greater integration of advanced technologies such as AI, machine learning, and IoT into TAB processes.

Lastly, you should expect to see various metropolitan areas experience a surge in megaprojects. Megaprojects will drive innovation in HVAC design and installation, emphasizing the need for testing and balancing to ensure optimal performance across vast spaces.

Stephen R. Yurek
President and CEO, AHRI

1. The ongoing refrigerant transition will get a boost when AHRI completes its years-long effort to secure the ability to install equipment using A2L refrigerants in all 50 states and U.S. territories.
2. The Biden Administration will push out as many new regulations as humanly possible before the end of the year (and most before the Congressional Review Act deadline in late summer).
3. AHRI will complete the update of its Directory of Certified Product Performance, making it even easier and more user friendly for contractors, technicians, and other end-users.
4. The U.S. District Court of Appeals for the 9^th Circuit will grant en banc review of the case California Restaurant Association v. City of Berkeley, further delaying final disposition of this landmark EPCA federal preemption case.
5. Part Two of the Process Rule, which is apparently being held against its will at an undisclosed location, will be part of a prisoner swap with Russia.
6. At some point in 2024, the number of pages in a daily Federal Register will set an all-time record as a result of a record number of federal regulations.

Rob Comstock
CEO, Service Experts

We’re going to see heat pumps continue to gain traction and strong ongoing demand for electric products like solar, residential battery storage, and electric vehicle (EV) chargers given the tax credits and new state incentives available under the Inflation Reduction Act. Dual-fuel heat pumps utilize technology that combines the high efficiency of an electric heat pump with the comfort and efficiency of a high-efficiency gas furnace. Also, older electric heat pump technology wasn’t suited for the colder climates, but recent technological advances have prompted some manufacturers to introduce new cold-weather heat pumps.

I expect higher consumer credit interest rates and the softening economy to tighten disposable income for consumers. However, high-efficiency HVAC solutions, combined with solar energy solutions, will provide homeowners valuable options that dramatically reduce utility costs while helping to deliver more energy independence.

While addressing inflation challenges through sustainable energy and efficiency is becoming compelling for homeowners, most consumers don’t have the time or interest to dissect information related to HVAC efficiency, solar energy savings, alternative energy production, etc. Experts with the resources and knowledge to simplify solutions and make it comfortably affordable for consumers are the ones who will win.

Chris Hunter
Director of Customer Relations, ServiceTitan

As we approach 2024, the HVAC industry stands at a critical juncture. The pandemic years were a surprising boon — homeowners, flush with cash and confined to their homes, funneled their resources into home improvements, leading to a surge in HVAC installations. AHRI data reflected this peak, but as we transitioned out of the pandemic, a noticeable dip emerged. It’s as if the industry’s future demand was borrowed and spent during the height of COVID-19.

The post-boom reality now: the landscape has changed. The inflated demand of 2020-2023 has waned, and late 2023 particularly saw a steep decline in installations. As we step into 2024, we’re not just returning to pre-COVID conditions, we’re entering an era where the inflated successes of the pandemic are receding like a tide, revealing the true state of businesses beneath.

For those companies that thrived during the pandemic without truly evolving, 2024 will be a year of harsh awakenings. The pandemic era propped up many businesses, masking inefficiencies and operational flaws. Now, with normalizing demand, only the truly robust and adaptive businesses will continue to thrive.

Perhaps the most dramatic shift has been in customer expectations. The pandemic didn’t just change consumer spending habits; it revolutionized what customers expect in terms of service and experience. Those businesses that haven’t embraced this new paradigm — focusing on digital engagement, seamless service delivery, and heightened customer interaction — will find themselves struggling to connect with a market that has chosen a contractor who has.

The key to success in 2024 will lie in embracing technology and adapting business models. Tools like ServiceTitan aren’t just conveniences; they’re necessities in a world where operational efficiency and customer experience are tightly intertwined. Businesses that leverage these tools for better service delivery, customer engagement, and streamlined operations will set themselves apart.

In conclusion, 2024 is not a return to the old ways but a step into a new era. The pandemic’s boom has passed, but its lessons and impacts remain. For the HVAC industry, this year will be a test of resilience, adaptability, and foresight. Those who have learned from the past few years and evolved will find success in this new landscape, while others may find themselves struggling to catch up.

Nick Arch
Managing Director of Residential HVAC, Carrier

As we think about 2024 and beyond, Carrier is focused on a few overarching themes that impact our customers, commitments, and capabilities. The pulse of the industry is certainly prioritizing the new refrigerant changes while balancing customer and operational excellence. Our mission remains focused on developing industry-leading technology and innovation while furthering our and our customers’ sustainability goals.

Although the economic environment remains dynamic, we expect the industry to endure, with residential solutions demand normalizing toward historical growth trends.

2024 is a pivotal year for the industry, with another major regulatory transition as the industry navigates the refrigerant shift from R-410A to other lower-GWP refrigerants. While the EPA’s final direction on regulations is evolving, we are working closely with our channel to maximize their readiness and minimize disruption to their businesses through proactive communication, programs and promotions, and a commitment to industry-leading training.

Homeowners’ understanding and adoption vary in this space, yet we also see increasing electrification trends. As the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) continues to mature and local and state programs and incentives evolve, we see the shift toward heat pumps in our industry continuing to rise. We are preparing our supply chains and factories to lean into this trend.

We also anticipate the continued digitalization of our industry. HVAC solutions are becoming more intelligent, driving both increased technician productivity and unit sustainability. We are excited to see how our new technologies will be adopted by technicians and make their installation, servicing and repairs easier. We are leading the way with our InteliSense Technology product and controls lineup, connecting homeowners with dealers through state-of-the-art solutions technology and platforms, and the incorporation of near-field communication on gas furnaces.

In terms of the aftermarket experience, building customer confidence and loyalty can be strengthened when we all focus on ways to serve customers after their purchase.

Bundling excellent customer service with the best parts, products and solutions is always a winning combination, regardless of the latest trend or buzz.

Brian Day
Co-CEO of Clockworks Analytics

Prediction #1: Data-Driven Maintenance
The shortage of skilled labor in the HVAC industry along with the increasing complexity of building automation systems will require facility teams to adapt their maintenance strategies to respond to these pressures. Teams will look to technology to help facilitate the shift from reactive maintenance to a proactive, data-driven maintenance approach. Automated building analytics — also known as Fault Detection and Diagnostics (FDD) — will become a standard expectation rather than an added value to manage buildings with limited resources, as it provides condition-based monitoring of equipment, helps to prioritize resource needs, and speeds up the process to resolve building issues.

Prediction #2: Carbon Tracking
Buildings are responsible for 35% of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, with about one-third of that energy wasted. The U.S. will (finally) start to move to more of a “stick” approach with respect to decarbonization, as opposed to the “carrot” approach followed to date. Between local, state, national, and intergovernmental regulations, excessive carbon emissions will have real financial consequences in many regions. Carbon impact will be a key consideration in all building projects, necessitating more detailed tracking of energy consumption and carbon footprint at every equipment level. This will require extensive sub-metering or accurate, traceable calculations, or a combination of both. More importantly, building teams will need to think holistically about carbon reduction and include all stakeholders, including maintenance teams, to reach sustainability goals long-term.

Prediction #3: Automated Fault Correction
Taking action on building issues is becoming more streamlined, with capabilities to remotely fix issues, streamline escalation into workflow tools such as Integrated Workplace Management Systems (IWMS), and automatically implement energy and carbon savings measures. This transformation will continue through the advancement of new self-correcting controls technology. The U.S. Department of Energy and Berkeley Lab recently joined forces with the smart buildings industry to deliver the first-ever technology to automatically find and correct controls problems. It is a big next step in the evolution of smart buildings: automatically finding and fixing control problems with a click, locking in savings, and reducing the time between fault detection and resolution from weeks and months to hours.