The American Gas Association has a new incoming chair for its board of directors. Lloyd Yates, president and CEO of NiSource, has over 25 years of experience in the industry, and on December 11, Yates and Karen Harbert, president and CEO of the AGA, held a virtual press conference regarding Yates’ new role as the 2025 chair of the AGA, and took questions from the press.
“As we wrap up this year, we look forward to 2025 and beyond, with tremendous anticipation for the emergence of new innovation for our homes, businesses, and industries that will drive our country forward and spur greater economic development,” Yates said in his introduction.
Below is a Q&A of some of what took place.
What are your thoughts on what the new National Energy Council, created by President-elect Donald Trump, could accomplish? And whether it could address some of the concerns that the gas industry has raised about the Biden administration's agenda. What are your hopes and expectations for that council, broadly, as it is led by Doug Burgum?
LY: We're optimistic about the council. I think one of the concerns as an industry that we've had is the inconsistency across the 50 states with respect to natural gas. The idea of a council where all the voices are heard, and we can come to some reasonable conclusions to drive clean, affordable energy across the country, are really important, so we're excited about this forum and hope that we can get all the voices in the room to get some reasonable solutions.
KH: You know energy security is so important to our country. Energy is the underpinning of our nation's economic competitiveness, and energy security is national security. So, having a centralized place where the issues domestic and international can be discussed, debated, and decided, makes a tremendous amount of sense, because the energy portfolio spans across multiple agencies. It's not just the Department of Energy or just the Department of Interior; many other agencies — regulatory agencies — are involved. So, we're quite supportive of there being a one-table discussion about energy policy and how to advance our country's energy agenda.
In Washington State, the fight over natural gas that went to voters last month took a monumental lift from the Building Industry Association of Washington to get Initiative 2066 on the ballot — and voters did approve it, ensuring that natural gas remains an energy choice here. There are already fights over it. The State Building Code Council is refusing to amend its codes, even though the initiative requires it. Are you seeing fights like this in other states? How is the AGA assisting groups that are trying to protect natural gas as an energy choice on the state level?
KH: The voters have spoken in the most recent elections. There were two initiatives on the ballot — one in Berkeley, and one in the state of Washington. In Berkeley, and it’s already been rejected through the court system, they were going to tax buildings that were gas consumers. And the voters came out 80% against that, and 20% for it. … In the state of Washington, [the vote] was 51-49. But in addition to that, 26 states have passed legislation and signed into law fuel choice legislation, which preserves the opportunity for natural gas for the customers of those states. And so I think when it's taken to the voters, there is huge support.
What parts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), if any, are you lobbying to keep in the next Congress?
KH: There’s a lot of tax credits that have obviously gone out to red states, blue states — and we're very supportive of so many of the different things that have gone up. I do think what we are hoping for, in the execution of the IRA tax credits, is that they are a little bit more balanced and inclusive. When you look at the types of tax credits — hydrogen, let's not be exclusive, let's be inclusive — that at the beginning of making a market you want every player on the field and the best ones will remain. We look at, and this is not related to the IRA, but the bio gas credit. The final rule came out, and it’s more inclusive. It allows much more things to be considered for the tax credit. So, we look at some of the incentives for electrifying a home. Well, let's actually have a tax incentive that's about making the home energy more energy efficient, without prescribing how you get there. Those are some of the discussions that we're having, about being more inclusive, to be able to advance the ball faster.
LY: I think the IRA in a lot of states has spurred significant economic growth and has created a lot of jobs in both red states and blue states. And it has provided lots of forums for a cleaner energy system. So, thinking about those impacts as a new administration comes in and make sure that we're educating them on all the things, the positive things that have happened and some of the things that haven't worked out so well. As Karen said, let's utilize some things to drive more home energy efficiency, as opposed to really thinking that people are going to switch to electrifying their homes.
What are your expectations for natural gas prices for 2025 and beyond?
LY: I think when we look at the forward market curves on natural gas — and the carpet curves tell you natural gas is going to go into the $3 range — if the new administration starts to promote more extracted, more shale, which gives us more supply, I think those prices will stay in the 220-250 range, which has been really beneficial for customers. When our customers in 2024 saw a 16% decrease in their natural gas bills, and then they saw they saw a decrease the year before that — with this low commodity natural gas price, even though we're invested in making the system safer, our customers are seeing lower and lower energy costs. And I think we're benefiting from all sides. And I think if we keep the supply where it needs to be in terms of extracting shale gas, I think that could be a stable energy resource to provide energy security for a really long time.
On the campaign trail, President-elect Trump said that he would cut energy costs in half for average Americans, which is, of course, a very broad statement. But do you see energy costs decreasing substantially in the U.S., in the near future?
LY: I see energy costs being stable or possibly decreasing. You think about on the natural gas side — if you keep the commodity price low — gas is generating 40-45% of electricity across the country, so electricity prices will be stable and lower, and of course, people with weaker homes with natural gasses and businesses, because that commodity price is low, that commodity prices 40-50% of the cost of serving a customer with respect to natural gas. Natural gas, or energy crisis, could go down in this country. That is a reasonable statement. “Substantially” is the part that remains to be seen.
Does AGA have projections for exactly how much of an increase we'll see in demand for natural gas specifically to meet power needs in the near term, and are we expecting to see a big buildout of new gas plants as a result? How quickly can those come online?
LY: l don't think we have estimates of how much growth we're going to get out of our data centers. I think as we talk with the developers and hyperscalers [large cloud service providers], we're trying to figure out what that demand looks like and in what time frame that demand occurs over. And so I think those numbers remain to be seen, because I think a lot of companies are talking hyperscalers, and we're trying to get this figured out. But, what I do know, is this is a substantial opportunity, and initially, because of this, the high-load-factor-low, requiring 99.99% reliability, there'll be a clean energy component with renewables, but a lot of this will be combined cycle natural gas turbines to supply this load until we can figure out a nuclear solution. So, I think over the next five to seven years, you'll see a lot of natural gas constructed to support these data centers, along with some renewables.
Is AGA hoping that the Energy Council counteracts some of the local efforts, if needed, if it comes down to state initiatives? And regarding the EPA methane rules — there's a trio of rules that the AGA is among, seeking judicial review on some elements — will the association be aiming for a rollback of some of that under the Trump administration?
KH: I think there's two questions embedded in your first question. I think the “National Energy Council” will be a “National Energy Council,” right? — seeking to align and coordinate national policy across the multitude of agencies that touch natural gas and or energy. That's DOE, EPA … SEC, CFTC, — it's the entire alphabet soup, right? And so having a one-table conversation about making sure that policies and regulations that come out at the national/federal level, are not contradictory and move our nation to be more energy secure ... They won’t really be able to touch the states. We just completed the three-year cycle to establish new energy conservation codes … and were able to ensure that in the code itself that it did not ban natural gas for residences and places of business, which is where the council was going at one point.
As the HVACR industry continues to evolve with advancements in energy efficiency and sustainability, how do you envision the role of the AGA and natural gas in general, in supporting these innovations as well as the HVACR industry overall?
KH: Our industry is working to improve energy efficiency through improvements to our delivery systems and programs to help customers improve their home energy efficiency, which can lower both bills and emissions. Our industry has lowered emissions from the natural gas delivery system by 70% since 1990, and we're not done yet. Our member companies invest $4.3 million each day in programs to help their customers reduce energy consumption via home weatherization and the installation of highly efficient natural gas appliances.
