Heat pumps are having their moment in the sun. That’s because the U.S., as well as many countries around the world, are encouraging – and incentivizing -- their citizens to embrace the electrification trend, which usually involves swapping out their gas or oil heating equipment for electric heat pumps.

Industry groups are also on the bandwagon, with the U.S. Climate Alliance pledging to quadruple the number of heat pumps installed in U.S. homes by 2030, for a total of about 20 million heat pumps. The group is comprised of 25 governors, and this pledge is part of a collection of state initiatives to work toward the goal of achieving a zero emission economy by 2050. Their pledge gets a boost from the Inflation Reduction Act, which heavily incentivizes the purchase of heat pumps, by providing a 30% tax credit for their purchase, in addition to state level credits and rebates.

For those questioning whether an air-source heat pump makes sense in colder climates, there’s good news about that, too, as a recent European study showed that “heat pumps can provide the most efficient heating in many cold climates around the world. As most European countries experience milder winters with minimum temperatures above -10°C, analysis suggests that heat pumps can be successfully installed in these conditions without concerns over performance or the need for back-up heating capacity. This is subject to thorough heating system design and a high-quality installation in a building.”

The italics are mine, but that last sentence is what concerns many industry experts who believe that in the rush to install as many heat pumps as possible, careful design and high-quality installation will be sacrificed. This was made clear in a recent webinar entitled, “Heat Pump Hell: Navigating The Challenges of Mass Market Implementation,” [below] where Jim Bergmann, president of measureQuick, expressed his concerns about the challenges of the electrification trend.

“We are facing some very substantial problems, and it starts out with the skilled labor gap,” he said. “Right now we have a huge number of technicians in the field who just simply are not prepared to install heat pumps.”

That could lead to consequences such as poor comfort and increased energy use. On the latter issue, he pointed to one study that showed how poor heat pump installation could actually increase energy usage, due to improper airflow and incorrect refrigerant levels. Another study he cited showed that only 24% of air conditioning systems are properly charged, which doesn’t bode well for heat pump systems, which require precise refrigerant levels for optimal performance.

Other poor installation practices that can affect heat pump performance include the potential mismatch between existing duct systems, said Bergmann, as well as the need for proper sizing, equipment selection, ductwork adjustments, and commissioning procedures. Moisture in the system could also be a problem during winter months.

“We're going to be running these things in the winter, and the outdoor coil is far below freezing,” he said. “Any moisture in that system is going to cause problems with freezing up in a metering device or an electronic expansion valve. There's no way to thaw that out without applying an external heat source, which is not an easy thing to do when you have a heat pump sitting outside in the middle of winter. And if these aren't installed correctly, the backup heat is probably electric heat, so we’ve taken a highly efficient heating source and turned it into the least efficient heating source you could have.”

Bergmann added that he’s been surprised by the widespread excitement and lack of understanding regarding the challenges posed by heat pumps. He cited the experiences of two industry experts who encountered problems with their new heat pump systems during the first cold snap of the year. Despite their industry knowledge and resources, these challenges highlight the potential difficulties when attempting electrification at scale, he said.

“We've done a great job identifying the problems, but we haven't done a real good job fixing them, and I think that's where our big mistake is,” said Bergmann.

That said, Bergmann is a big fan of heat pumps and believes they can often be the right solution for a number of applications – just not the only solution, particularly as a primary heating source in cold climates. He noted that dual fuel systems – those that incorporate heat pumps with another heat source such as a gas-fired boiler or furnace – are often a great choice, particularly during shoulder seasons.

“If we just got rid of air conditioners and we went to a dual fuel system, so every installation now includes a heat pump. That's a tremendous amount of energy savings across the country and during shoulder seasons,” he said. “And it gives the industry a little bit of a chance to actually prove that these heat pumps will work in cold climates. But I think today it's too early to do mass heat pump-only installations across this country without really considering dual fuel, because that's a huge risk. And the industry is just not ready for it.”