Heat pumps have great momentum in the HVAC industry these days. One just needed to attend the annual AHR Expo in Chicago. A dangerous drinking game would have been to walk the Expo floor and take a drink every time you either saw a heat pump or heard someone mention them.
Of course, there are many reasons for this trend. Government incentives and local utility rebates are a big piece of the puzzle. Even if the state governments have yet to figure out how to distribute the heat pump money in the Inflation Reduction Act, homeowners are still getting a good deal when they install a heat pump. This helps offset the initial costs, which might include an electrical box upgrade.
In addition, the great strides HVAC manufacturers have made in cold climate heat pumps have definitely helped the trend. Now, heat pumps can be a viable option for homeowners in states like Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
According to the most recent shipment numbers from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), heat pumps are more popular than natural gas furnaces. For the second year in a row, they’ve outpaced them in yearly shipments. In 2022, heat pumps had a 12% edge over furnaces, while in 2023, that number jumped to 21%.
It is important to point out that both shipment numbers saw a decrease in 2023.
What does this trend look like when you get out of the AHR Expo ecosystem? According to research by Midea presented at the most recent AHR Expo, not as strong as we might think. Actually, what they found out is that a fair number of contractors and even more homeowners have little or no idea about this technology.
The manufacturer asked homeowners if they knew what a heat pump is. The results showed that 80% said they did, which is higher than I expected. When they asked about heat pump capabilities, that 80% number dropped to 50%, which showed homeowners have heard of heat pumps but don’t truly know what they do.
Luckily, the research went one step further. When asked if they were aware that a heat pump could handle 100% of the heating load at -4°F, that awareness number dropped to 4%. So, 96% of the homeowners had no idea a heat pump could accomplish that. What we have there is a learning curve.
“So if you come in and you offer a heat pump, and they go, ‘Oh, my grandpa had a heat pump and he said he hated it — it blew cold air at 40°, it got cold in the house,’ that is our opportunity to say, ‘Grandpa's technology is no more,’” said David Rames, senior product manager for Midea. “This is futuristic, this is innovative, and you have to trust us. We can handle all geographic geographical areas.”
When contractors were asked that last question, 30% of them knew the results heat pumps could produce in ultra-cold climates. Better than homeowners, but still not great.
“So as a manufacturer, we have taken it upon ourselves to be the educators, because even though consumers are more educated than ever, they still don't know certain things,” Rames said. “The manufacturer has got to do the educating from the top down. We know the technology and we know what we can do. We know how you can implement it in your home. We're going to start educating, educating, educating so that a consumer will know or be able to make this transition.”
Contractors need to begin educating their customers as well. It will certainly need to be a team effort to get awareness up to where it needs to be. The average homeowner has been heating their home with a different form of technology for as long as they can remember. And the old information about heat pumps in cold climates can now be viewed as antiquated.
How fast this trend continues is anybody’s guess. The rate of adoption will probably be based on whether these incentives keep rolling out and, perhaps more importantly, if the government begins to use the stick instead of the carrot.
Either way, homeowners need to be educated on this from a variety of sources.
