The Christmas cookies are long gone, the decorations put away, the toasts to better days ahead are over, and we’re now weeks into January, most of us back to work in a brand-new year.
What are the forces that will shape the HVAC contracting sector in 2025? A newly published survey by the folks at Housecall Pro offers some answers.
Housecall Pro offers software tools to home services businesses to help with tasks like scheduling, dispatching, marketing, invoicing, and even business brainstorming. The company has more than 45,000 clients that represent more than 50 services, ranging from HVAC installation and repair to plumbing, chimney-sweeping, pest control, and landscaping. According to Roland Ligtenberg, a Housecall Pro co-founder and its senior vice president of innovation, a majority of clients work in three skilled trades: HVAC, plumbing, and electrical work.
Housecall Pro recently contacted more than 400 of its member professionals in those three trades to get their views on developments affecting home services. With the results, the company identified four trends that Ligtenberg said will have an impact this year — and likely well beyond: Confidence in growth, a continuing labor shortage, trade schools and apprenticeships as ways forward, and an increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) by contractors.
I spoke with Ligtenberg, just before the calendar turned, to discuss the survey’s findings in detail. Here’s what he had to say about Housecall Pro’s four trends:
Growth Expected
Some 77% of the pros surveyed said they expect business growth in 2025, with 40% expecting growth of more than 10%.
This, Ligtenberg, is largely because HVAC, electricity, and plumbing are “need-to-haves,” not “nice-to-haves,” for homeowners. Even during inflationary times, he said, they’ll remain priorities.
“They’re basic human needs, and there’s a low quantity of the skill, and there’s going to be consistent and still-growing demand for these things,” Ligtenberg said.
That growth extends to available trades jobs, too. The number of HVACR technicians, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was at more than 441,000 in 2023 and is expected to grow by 9% through 2033, a rate much higher than the average for all professions. The number of available plumbing and electrical jobs is also anticipated to grow significantly.
“That means that there’s even more of a premium on skilled trades, which means, all things being equal, that price will go up because there will be more demand for less supply,” Ligtenberg said.
Many of those openings, he said, will stem from retirements.
A Labor Shortage — And Opportunities
The Housecall Pro survey found that 60% of responding trades professionals said the shortage of skilled labor has impacted their business, and 86% said that their biggest hiring challenge is a lack of qualified candidates. At the same time, 78% found the trades offer a more stable career path than a college education.
According to the BLS, the average annual wage for an HVAC technician in the U.S. is more than $50,000, and some higher-wage states, such as Massachusetts, Alaska, and Washington, have an average wage of around $72,000.
Focus on Education
In the Housecall Pro survey, 80% of respondents said more mentorship, education, and apprenticeship opportunities are needed to address the labor shortage.
Housecall Pro has taken up that mission.
Roland Ligtenberg (Courtesy of Housecall Pro).
Trade Academy scholarships, begun in 2021, help pay for HVAC training; the program was just expanded to include grants for aspiring electricians and plumbers. Scholarships, tools, and other resources totaling more than $250,000 have been handed out since the program started, and the Trade Academy collaborates with 114 trade schools across the country. The WD-40 Co. and Supplyhouse.com are Housecall Pro’s partners in the program.
The trades education community appears to be working to meet greater demand as well. Between 2023 and 2024, the number of students enrolled at vocational-focused community colleges increased by more than 17%, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Learning with AI
Contractors aren’t just pushing for more education and training for their employees and potential employees. The survey found a substantial number who are using AI to learn, as well as to save time and grow their businesses.
“A lot of our pros, they’ve already used AI outside of Housecall Pro,” Ligtenberg said. “They’ve already used ChatGPT. They have already used Claude ... both in their consumer lives, but also to help them out in the field.”
The survey found that 42% of respondents used AI tools within the previous year, and 25% reported that they’d increased jobs and revenue with the help of AI. Some 44% of the pros surveyed said they believe AI will continue to enhance trade jobs.
“A lot of the work that they were previously required to do that would be mentally draining and time-consuming, like busywork, like paperwork, you know — all of those types of things are getting automated by software like ours,” Ligtenberg said.
And while software can answer phones or write up invoices, Ligtenberg noted that the hands-on work of HVACR techs will not easily be taken away by AI.
“What’s amazing about the home services is they’re very well insulated from, like, ‘AI is going to take my job,’ ‘cause it’s not ... not anytime soon,” Ligtenberg said. “But the things that will take away is having to answer phone calls, you know, when you’re up in the attic.”
